Putting Up Numbers· college football

Missouri @ Ole Miss

Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · No. 13 at No. 9

Ole Miss 31, Missouri 3Ole Miss was favored by 4.5, and Ole Miss covered.

Missouri at Ole Miss: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameMissouri1 gameOle Miss1 game
Points−22.9+7.6
Points allowed−3.1−25.4
Total offense, yards+7+139
Total defense, yards+79−9
Touchdowns−2.9+1.4
Passer rating−14.7+5.4
Third downs−4.6%+25.4%
Sacks−1.2+0.6
Penalty yards−6.1−5.2
Turnovers forced−0.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.3−0.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Ole Miss

Missouri

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Ole Miss

  • Ole Miss had won 14 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 15.
  • Ole Miss had beaten 13 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Ole Miss was 0.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 72nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+23.5 against the line this game.

Missouri

  • Missouri had beaten 28 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Missouri had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Missouri was 4.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 32nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−23.5 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Ole Miss had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Ole Miss had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Ole Miss had beaten 7 of its last 10 ranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, Ole Miss’ carries were 12.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.5 over expected.
  • Against a ranked opponent, Ole Miss’ passing yards were 91.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 42.0 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Ole Miss’ penalty yards were 15.8 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.9 under expected.
  • Missouri had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Against a top-10 opponent, Missouri’s total yards were 214.8 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.4 under expected.
  • Against a ranked opponent, Missouri’s total yards were 122.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.4 under expected.
  • On the road, Missouri’s passing yards were 81.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 124.7 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 17, 2026at Ole MissOle Miss 31, Missouri 3
Oct 12, 2019at MissouriMissouri 38, Ole Miss 27
Nov 23, 2013at Ole MissMissouri 24, Ole Miss 10
Sep 8, 2007at Ole MissMissouri 38, Ole Miss 25
Sep 9, 2006at MissouriMissouri 34, Ole Miss 7
Sep 22, 1979at Ole MissMissouri 33, Ole Miss 7
Sep 23, 1978at MissouriMissouri 45, Ole Miss 14
Sep 14, 1974at Ole MissOle Miss 10, Missouri 0
Sep 15, 1973at MissouriMissouri 17, Ole Miss 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.