Florida State @ Miami (FL)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · Unranked at No. 3

Miami (FL) 43, Florida State 35Miami (FL) was favored by 20, and Florida State covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Miami (FL) had won 5 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Miami (FL) had beaten 8 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 9.
Miami (FL) had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Miami (FL) had won 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Miami (FL) had won 6 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Miami (FL) was 7.7 points a game over the closing line this season, 15th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−12.0 against the line this game.

Florida State was 2.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 95th of 136, and 15.3 worse away than at home over its last 25, 131st of 136.fact · rankedits form →+12.0 against the line this game.

Miami (FL) leads the series 38–33 since 1951. Miami (FL) has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

Miami (FL) had covered 9 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Miami (FL) had covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Miami (FL) was 4–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
At home, Miami (FL)’s penalty yards were 52.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.1 over expected.
Florida State was 2–1–1 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
Against a top-10 opponent, Florida State’s passing yards were 154.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.9 over expected.
At night, Florida State’s passing yards were 76.9 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.9 over expected.
On the road, Florida State’s third-down conversion rate were 13.9% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.7% under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.