Florida @ 
Texas
Florida 27, Texas 24Texas was favored by 13, and Florida covered.
| a game | Florida1 game | Texas1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +8.8 | −7.7 |
| Points allowed | −6.2 | −2.1 |
| Total offense, yards | +21 | −140 |
| Total defense, yards | −106 | −76 |
| Touchdowns | +1.4 | −1.8 |
| Passer rating | −3.6 | +17.5 |
| Third downs | +6.9% | −23.6% |
| Sacks | +2.7 | −1.2 |
| Penalty yards | −1.8 | −41.8 |
| Turnovers forced | −0.2 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.2 | −0.2 |
Who put up numbers
Texas
- Passing yardsArch Manning173 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsArch Manning1 passing touchdown
- Rushing yardsHollywood Smothers52 rushing yards
Florida
Analysis
Texas
- Texas had won 12 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- Texas had failed to cover 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
- Texas had beaten 4 straight ranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- Texas was 0.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 66th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−16.0 against the line this game.
Florida
- Florida’s points allowed were 12.3 lower at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 134th of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 8.6 under expected.
- Florida was 4.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 100th of 136, and 15.8 worse away than at home over its last 25, 132nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+16.0 against the line this game.
The series
- Texas leads the series 3–2–1 since 1924. Florida has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Texas had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- Texas had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- Texas was 1–4 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- At home, Texas’ third-down conversion rate were 19.1% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 21.4% under expected.
- In a conference game, Texas’ penalty yards were 30.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 41.3 under expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, Texas’ total yards were 53.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 109.9 under expected.
- On the road, Florida’s penalty yards were 49.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.6 under expected.
- Against a top-10 opponent, Florida’s points of margin were 33.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.3 over expected.
- Against a ranked opponent, Florida’s penalty yards were 23.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.6 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | at Texas | Florida 27, Texas 24 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | at Florida | Florida 29, Texas 21 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | at Texas | Texas 49, Florida 17 |
| Dec 7, 1940 | at Florida | Texas 26, Florida 0 |
| Sep 30, 1939 | at Texas | Texas 12, Florida 0 |
| Oct 25, 1924 | at Texas | Texas 7, Florida 7 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.