Cincinnati @ West Virginia

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

West Virginia 45, Cincinnati 42West Virginia was favored by 1.5, and West Virginia covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

West Virginia was 4.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 103rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+1.5 against the line this game.

Cincinnati had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Cincinnati was 1.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 55th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−1.5 against the line this game.

West Virginia leads the series 19–3–1 since 1921. West Virginia has won the last 5.seriesevery meeting →

At home, West Virginia’s carries were 21.0 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.7 under expected.
In a conference game, West Virginia’s rushing yards were 118.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 104.7 under expected.
Cincinnati had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Cincinnati had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
On the road, Cincinnati’s total yards were 180.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 175.9 over expected.
In a conference game, Cincinnati’s carries were 5.9 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.1 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.