Putting Up Numbers· college football

Arkansas @ Vanderbilt

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21Vanderbilt was favored by 5.5, and Arkansas covered.

Arkansas at Vanderbilt: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameArkansas1 gameVanderbilt1 game
Points+3.0−10.6
Points allowed−3.6+13.8
Total offense, yards+67−12
Total defense, yards+35+121
Touchdowns−0.3−0.8
Passer rating−1.2−10.3
Third downs+8.5%+2.1%
Sacks−1.2−2.3
Penalty yards+10.3−21.1
Turnovers forced+0.8−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.2+0.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Vanderbilt

Arkansas

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Vanderbilt

  • Vanderbilt had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Vanderbilt was 6.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 126th of 136, and 11.2 worse at home than away over its last 25, 133rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−15.5 against the line this game.

Arkansas

  • Arkansas was 5.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 118th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+15.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Arkansas leads the series 8–3 since 1949. Arkansas has won 5 straight at Vanderbilt.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Vanderbilt had won 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Vanderbilt had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, Vanderbilt’s penalty yards were 23.1 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 24.4 under expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Vanderbilt’s third-down conversion rate were 8.7% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.7% over expected.
  • Arkansas had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Arkansas had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Arkansas was 1–3 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Covered.
  • In a conference game, Arkansas’ carries were 8.2 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.2 over expected.
  • On the road, Arkansas’ points were 11.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.4 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Arkansas’ penalty yards were 20.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.7 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 17, 2026at VanderbiltArkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21
Oct 27, 2018at ArkansasVanderbilt 45, Arkansas 31
Oct 29, 2011at VanderbiltArkansas 31, Vanderbilt 28
Oct 30, 2010at ArkansasArkansas 49, Vanderbilt 14
Sep 16, 2006at VanderbiltArkansas 21, Vanderbilt 19
Sep 10, 2005at ArkansasVanderbilt 28, Arkansas 24
Sep 30, 1995at VanderbiltArkansas 35, Vanderbilt 7
Oct 1, 1994at ArkansasArkansas 42, Vanderbilt 6
Sep 16, 1978at ArkansasArkansas 48, Vanderbilt 17
Oct 28, 1950at ArkansasVanderbilt 14, Arkansas 13

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.