Arizona State @ Texas Tech

Sat, Oct 17, 2026 · Unranked at No. 10

Texas Tech 53, Arizona State 25Texas Tech was favored by 16, and Texas Tech covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Texas Tech had won 11 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 12.
Texas Tech had beaten 8 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 9.
Texas Tech had won 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Texas Tech had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Texas Tech was 6.7 points a game under the closing line this season, 124th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+12.0 against the line this game.

Arizona State was 6.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 127th of 136, and 10.6 better away than at home over its last 25, 5th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−12.0 against the line this game.

Texas Tech leads the series 4–3 since 1999. Texas Tech has won 3 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

Texas Tech had won 8 of its last 10 by 10 or more.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Texas Tech had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Texas Tech was 2–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
At home, Texas Tech’s third-down conversion rate were 14.5% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.4% under expected.
In a conference game, Texas Tech’s penalty yards were 15.9 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.9 under expected.
Against an unranked opponent, Texas Tech’s points allowed were 6.5 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.7 over expected.
On the road, Arizona State’s passing yards were 66.1 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 133.2 over expected.
In a conference game, Arizona State’s penalty yards were 15.8 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 23.5 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 16, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.