Putting Up Numbers· college football

UCLA @ Oregon

Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · No. 21 at No. 13

UCLA 17, Oregon 15Oregon was favored by 10, and UCLA covered.

UCLA at Oregon: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameUCLA1 gameOregon1 game
Points−5.5−6.1
Points allowed−17.8−11.5
Total offense, yards−23−49
Total defense, yards−156−47
Touchdowns−0.7−0.4
Passer rating−2.3−24.8
Third downs−11.5%−27.2%
Sacks−0.6+0.3
Penalty yards+25.6−11.4
Turnovers forced+4.8+1.8
Turnovers lost+1.8+4.5

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Oregon

UCLA

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Oregon

  • Oregon had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Oregon was 3.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 97th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−12.0 against the line this game.

UCLA

  • UCLA had covered 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
  • UCLA had won 4 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • UCLA had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • UCLA had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • UCLA was 18.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 2nd of 136, and 12.3 better away than at home over its last 25, 2nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+12.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Oregon had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Oregon had won 7 of its last 10 by 10 or more.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Oregon had beaten 7 of its last 10 ranked opponents.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Oregon was 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • Against a ranked opponent, Oregon’s passing yards were 159.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 27.2 under expected.
  • At home, Oregon’s penalty yards were 42.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.6 under expected.
  • In a conference game, UCLA’s points were 22.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.7 under expected.
  • On the road, UCLA’s points were 18.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.7 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 10, 2026at OregonUCLA 17, Oregon 15
Sep 28, 2024at UCLAOregon 34, UCLA 13
Oct 22, 2022at OregonOregon 45, UCLA 30
Oct 23, 2021at UCLAOregon 34, UCLA 31
Nov 21, 2020at OregonOregon 38, UCLA 35
Nov 3, 2018at OregonOregon 42, UCLA 21
Oct 21, 2017at UCLAUCLA 31, Oregon 14
Oct 11, 2014at UCLAOregon 42, UCLA 30
Oct 26, 2013at OregonOregon 42, UCLA 14
Dec 2, 2011neutralOregon 49, UCLA 31

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.