Putting Up Numbers· college football

Tulsa @ Navy

Sat, Oct 10, 2026

Navy 34, Tulsa 26Navy was favored by 3, and Navy covered.

Tulsa at Navy: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameTulsa1 gameNavy1 game
Points−2.2+6.2
Points allowed+7.0+1.0
Total offense, yards+2+71
Total defense, yards+88+31
Touchdowns−0.5+1.7
Passer rating−3.7+65.3
Third downs+3.4%+32.9%
Sacks−1.6−0.9
Penalty yards−35.1−36.9
Turnovers forced+2.8−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.1+2.7

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Navy

Tulsa

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Navy

  • Navy had failed to cover 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Navy had won 7 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 8.
  • Navy was 7.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 121st of 136.fact · rankedits form →+5.0 against the line this game.

Tulsa

  • Tulsa was 0.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 67th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−5.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • Navy leads the series 10–2 since 2004. Navy has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • In a conference game, Navy’s total yards were 46.5 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 78.5 over expected.
  • In a conference game, Tulsa’s pass attempts were 12.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.6 over expected.
  • On the road, Tulsa’s points were 12.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.5 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 10, 2026at NavyNavy 34, Tulsa 26
Sep 13, 2025at TulsaNavy 42, Tulsa 23
Oct 8, 2022at NavyNavy 53, Tulsa 21
Oct 29, 2021at TulsaNavy 20, Tulsa 17
Dec 5, 2020at NavyTulsa 19, Navy 6
Oct 12, 2019at TulsaNavy 45, Tulsa 17
Nov 17, 2018at NavyNavy 37, Tulsa 29
Sep 30, 2017at TulsaNavy 31, Tulsa 21
Nov 12, 2016at NavyNavy 42, Tulsa 40
Nov 21, 2015at TulsaNavy 44, Tulsa 21

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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