Putting Up Numbers· college football

San Diego State @ Oregon State

Sat, Oct 10, 2026

Oregon State 66, San Diego State 14Oregon State was favored by 14.5, and Oregon State covered.

San Diego State at Oregon State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameSan Diego State1 gameOregon State1 game
Points−11.6+33.2
Points allowed+32.9−9.5
Total offense, yards−224+226
Total defense, yards+192−183
Touchdowns−2.3+5.2
Passer rating−70.8+57.8
Third downs−24.9%+27.4%
Sacks−1.0−1.7
Penalty yards−11.2−29.8
Turnovers forced−1.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Oregon State

San Diego State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Oregon State

  • Oregon State had covered 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
  • Oregon State was 15.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 6th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+37.5 against the line this game.

San Diego State

  • San Diego State was 7.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 122nd of 136, and 12.9 worse away than at home over its last 25, 131st of 136.fact · rankedits form →−37.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Oregon State leads the series 6–2 since 1972. Oregon State has won the last 6.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • In a conference game, Oregon State’s third-down conversion rate were 42.4% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 27.4% over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Oregon State’s penalty yards were 42.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 31.1 under expected.
  • At home, Oregon State’s carries were 11.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.0 over expected.
  • In a conference game, San Diego State’s pass attempts were 13.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.4 over expected.
  • On the road, San Diego State’s penalty yards were 15.2 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.6 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 10, 2026at Oregon StateOregon State 66, San Diego State 14
Sep 7, 2024at San Diego StateOregon State 21, San Diego State 0
Sep 16, 2023at Oregon StateOregon State 26, San Diego State 9
Sep 20, 2014at Oregon StateOregon State 28, San Diego State 7
Sep 21, 2013at San Diego StateOregon State 34, San Diego State 30
Sep 23, 2000at Oregon StateOregon State 35, San Diego State 3
Sep 13, 1975at Oregon StateSan Diego State 25, Oregon State 0
Sep 8, 1972at San Diego StateSan Diego State 17, Oregon State 8

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.