Putting Up Numbers· college football

Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt

Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · No. 9 at unranked

Ole Miss 52, Vanderbilt 17Ole Miss was favored by 9.5, and Ole Miss covered.

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameOle Miss1 gameVanderbilt1 game
Points+26.0−12.2
Points allowed−8.0+24.0
Total offense, yards+36−54
Total defense, yards−12+12
Touchdowns+3.0−1.2
Passer rating+16.8−27.7
Third downs+3.7%+12.2%
Sacks+1.0−0.4
Penalty yards+16.5+32.6
Turnovers forced+2.8−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2+2.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Vanderbilt

Ole Miss

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Vanderbilt

  • Vanderbilt had won 10 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Vanderbilt had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Vanderbilt was 3.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 95th of 136, and 10.6 worse at home than away over its last 25, 132nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−25.5 against the line this game.

Ole Miss

  • Ole Miss had beaten 12 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 13.
  • Ole Miss had won 14 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Ole Miss was 6.3 points a game under the closing line this season, 113th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+25.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Ole Miss leads the series 55–37–2 since 1902. Ole Miss has won the last 6.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Vanderbilt had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Against a ranked opponent, Vanderbilt’s pass attempts were 7.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.6 over expected.
  • At home, Vanderbilt’s penalty yards were 19.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 31.5 over expected.
  • In a conference game, Vanderbilt’s points allowed were 7.3 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.5 over expected.
  • Ole Miss had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • On the road, Ole Miss’ points allowed were 25.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.0 under expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Ole Miss’ third-down conversion rate were 25.8% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.6% under expected.
  • In a conference game, Ole Miss’ pass attempts were 8.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.8 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 10, 2026at VanderbiltOle Miss 52, Vanderbilt 17
Oct 28, 2023at Ole MissOle Miss 33, Vanderbilt 7
Oct 8, 2022at VanderbiltOle Miss 52, Vanderbilt 28
Nov 20, 2021at Ole MissOle Miss 31, Vanderbilt 17
Oct 31, 2020at VanderbiltOle Miss 54, Vanderbilt 21
Oct 5, 2019at Ole MissOle Miss 31, Vanderbilt 6
Nov 17, 2018at VanderbiltVanderbilt 36, Ole Miss 29
Oct 14, 2017at Ole MissOle Miss 57, Vanderbilt 35
Nov 19, 2016at VanderbiltVanderbilt 38, Ole Miss 17
Sep 26, 2015at Ole MissOle Miss 27, Vanderbilt 16

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.