Putting Up Numbers· college football

Nevada @ UTEP

Sat, Oct 10, 2026

Nevada 30, UTEP 13Nevada was favored by 10, and Nevada covered.

Nevada at UTEP: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNevada1 gameUTEP1 game
Points−3.0−15.5
Points allowed−6.1+10.3
Total offense, yards−20−153
Total defense, yards−112+63
Touchdowns−0.8−0.9
Passer rating−38.6+0.2
Third downs−13.6%−29.7%
Sacks−1.1−0.1
Penalty yards−2.1+20.9
Turnovers forced−1.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2−1.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

UTEP

Nevada

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

UTEP

  • UTEP was 8.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 129th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−7.0 against the line this game.

Nevada

  • Nevada was 4.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 38th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+7.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • Nevada leads the series 4–1 since 2000. Nevada has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • UTEP had lost 9 of its last 10.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • UTEP was 0–4 against the line as an underdog this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
  • In a conference game, UTEP’s points allowed were 25.8 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.9 under expected.
  • At home, UTEP’s penalty yards were 36.8 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 21.4 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, UTEP’s penalty yards were 20.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 21.4 over expected.
  • Nevada had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • On the road, Nevada’s rushing yards were 139.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 108.6 over expected.
  • In a conference game, Nevada’s points allowed were 16.1 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.4 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 10, 2026at UTEPNevada 30, UTEP 13
Sep 21, 2019at UTEPNevada 37, UTEP 21
Nov 9, 2002at NevadaNevada 23, UTEP 17
Nov 24, 2001at UTEPNevada 48, UTEP 31
Nov 4, 2000at NevadaUTEP 45, Nevada 22

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.