LSU @ 
Kentucky
Kentucky 35, LSU 34LSU was favored by 9.5, and Kentucky covered.
| a game | LSU1 game | Kentucky1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +10.5 | +13.8 |
| Points allowed | +4.3 | +2.3 |
| Total offense, yards | +58 | +88 |
| Total defense, yards | +15 | −34 |
| Touchdowns | +1.3 | +0.7 |
| Passer rating | +45.2 | −5.5 |
| Third downs | +12.8% | −1.8% |
| Sacks | −1.2 | +1.1 |
| Penalty yards | −4.1 | −36.0 |
| Turnovers forced | −1.3 | +0.8 |
| Turnovers lost | +0.5 | −1.2 |
Who put up numbers
Kentucky
- Passing yardsKenny Minchey246 passing yards
- Rushing yardsCJ Baxter123 rushing yards
- Rushing touchdownsCJ Baxter2 rushing touchdowns
LSU
Analysis
Kentucky
- Kentucky’s passing yards were 108.3 higher vs a top-10 opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 30 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 62.8 over expected.
- Kentucky’s passing yards were 89.7 higher vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 78 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 62.8 over expected.
- Kentucky was 4.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 36th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+10.5 against the line this game.
LSU
- LSU had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- LSU was 6.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 26th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−10.5 against the line this game.
The series
- LSU leads the series 39–17–1 since 1949.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- Kentucky had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- At home, Kentucky’s third-down conversion rate were 25.5% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.5% over expected.
- Against a top-10 opponent, Kentucky’s pass attempts were 10.2 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.3 over expected.
- Against a ranked opponent, Kentucky’s rushing yards were 42.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 37.7 over expected.
- LSU had beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- LSU had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- LSU was 2–3 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
- On the road, LSU’s passing yards were 148.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 35.7 over expected.
- Against an unranked opponent, LSU’s total yards were 160.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 23.4 under expected.
- In a conference game, LSU’s penalty yards were 22.7 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.1 under expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | at Kentucky | Kentucky 35, LSU 34 |
| Oct 1, 2011 | at LSU | LSU 35, Kentucky 7 |
| Oct 13, 2007 | at Kentucky | Kentucky 43, LSU 37 |
| Oct 14, 2006 | at LSU | LSU 49, Kentucky 0 |
| Nov 9, 2002 | at Kentucky | LSU 33, Kentucky 30 |
| Oct 13, 2001 | at Kentucky | LSU 29, Kentucky 25 |
| Oct 14, 2000 | at LSU | LSU 34, Kentucky 0 |
| Oct 16, 1999 | at Kentucky | Kentucky 31, LSU 5 |
| Oct 17, 1998 | at LSU | Kentucky 39, LSU 36 |
| Nov 1, 1997 | at Kentucky | LSU 63, Kentucky 28 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.