Houston @ Kansas State

Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · No. 22 at unranked

Houston 35, Kansas State 16Kansas State was favored by 2.5, and Houston covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Kansas State had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Kansas State was 4.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 43rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−21.5 against the line this game.

Houston had beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
Houston was 2.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 50th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+21.5 against the line this game.

Houston leads the series 2–1 since 2023. Houston has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

Kansas State had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Kansas State was 2–2 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
In a conference game, Kansas State’s pass attempts were 15.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.1 under expected.
At home, Kansas State’s rushing yards were 41.0 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 39.6 under expected.
Houston had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Houston had won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
On the road, Houston’s third-down conversion rate were 32.2% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.8% over expected.
In a conference game, Houston’s third-down conversion rate were 7.6% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.8% over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.