Georgia @ Alabama

Sat, Oct 10, 2026 · No. 2 at No. 6

Georgia 20, Alabama 17Alabama was favored by 2.5, and Georgia covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Alabama had won 5 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Alabama had won 5 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Alabama had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Alabama had won 7 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Alabama had beaten 10 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Alabama was 14.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 7th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−5.5 against the line this game.

Georgia had won 5 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Georgia had won 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Georgia had won 5 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Georgia had beaten 53 straight unranked teams, tied for the 5th-longest since 1936.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Georgia had won 8 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Georgia was 8.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 17th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+5.5 against the line this game.

Alabama leads the series 45–27–3 since 1902. Georgia has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

Alabama had covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Alabama had beaten 7 of its last 10 ranked opponents.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Alabama was 4–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
Against a ranked opponent, Alabama’s third-down conversion rate were 26.5% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.0% over expected.
At night, Alabama’s passing yards were 124.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 57.1 under expected.
In a conference game, Alabama’s points of margin were 26.7 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.6 under expected.
Georgia had beaten 7 of its last 10 ranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
On the road, Georgia’s rushing yards were 96.5 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 98.7 over expected.
In a conference game, Georgia’s penalty yards were 19.9 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.9 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 9, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.