Sam Houston @ Liberty

Thu, Oct 8, 2026

Liberty 35, Sam Houston 3Liberty was favored by 13.5, and Liberty covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Liberty had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Liberty had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Liberty was 3.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 45th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+18.5 against the line this game.

Sam Houston was 14.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 7th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−18.5 against the line this game.

Liberty was 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
At home, Liberty’s third-down conversion rate were 34.0% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.1% over expected.
In a conference game, Liberty’s penalty yards were 44.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 61.1 over expected.
At night, Liberty’s penalty yards were 36.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 61.1 over expected.
Sam Houston had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
At night, Sam Houston’s passing yards were 116.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 51.0 under expected.
On the road, Sam Houston’s pass attempts were 6.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.1 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 7, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.