Putting Up Numbers· college football

New Mexico State @ Florida International

Wed, Oct 7, 2026

Florida International 22, New Mexico State 3Florida International was favored by 7, and Florida International covered.

New Mexico State at Florida International: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNew Mexico State1 gameFlorida International1 game
Points−20.1−7.6
Points allowed+0.2−18.1
Total offense, yards−107−175
Total defense, yards−160−115
Touchdowns−2.6−2.3
Passer rating−76.3−40.9
Third downs−12.0%−0.9%
Sacks+1.5+1.1
Penalty yards−9.4−13.6
Turnovers forced−0.2+1.8
Turnovers lost+1.8−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Florida International

New Mexico State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Florida International

  • Florida International had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • Florida International was 3.1 points a game under the closing line this season, 94th of 136, and 7.2 worse at home than away over its last 25, 127th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+12.0 against the line this game.

New Mexico State

  • New Mexico State was 5.2 points a game over the closing line this season, 36th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−12.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • Florida International leads the series 3–2 since 2004. Florida International has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At home, Florida International’s total yards were 166.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 165.3 under expected.
  • New Mexico State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At night, New Mexico State’s third-down conversion rate were 25.3% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.7% under expected.
  • In a conference game, New Mexico State’s third-down conversion rate were 21.4% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.7% under expected.
  • On the road, New Mexico State’s third-down conversion rate were 13.9% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.7% under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 7, 2026at Florida InternationalFlorida International 22, New Mexico State 3
Oct 29, 2024neutralFlorida International 34, New Mexico State 13
Oct 4, 2023at New Mexico StateNew Mexico State 34, Florida International 17
Oct 1, 2022at New Mexico StateFlorida International 21, New Mexico State 7
Oct 30, 2004at New Mexico StateNew Mexico State 56, Florida International 31

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 6, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.