Putting Up Numbers· college football

West Virginia @ Iowa State

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Iowa State 45, West Virginia 42Iowa State was favored by 3, and the game pushed.

West Virginia at Iowa State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameWest Virginia1 gameIowa State1 game
Points+17.4+12.2
Points allowed+18.0+14.0
Total offense, yards+140+115
Total defense, yards+221+112
Touchdowns+2.9+2.0
Passer rating+21.0+33.3
Third downs+0.1%+5.9%
Sacks+0.3−0.2
Penalty yards+31.8+1.3
Turnovers forced−0.2+0.8
Turnovers lost+0.8−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Iowa State

West Virginia

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Iowa State

  • Iowa State had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
  • Iowa State was 7.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 28th of 136.fact · rankedits form →0.0 against the line this game.

West Virginia

  • West Virginia was 1.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 82nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →0.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • Iowa State leads the series 7–6 since 2012. Iowa State has won the last 3. Iowa State has won 4 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Iowa State had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Iowa State’s rushing yards were 147.7 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 75.4 over expected.
  • In a conference game, Iowa State’s pass attempts were 10.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.0 under expected.
  • At home, Iowa State’s rushing yards were 56.7 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 75.4 over expected.
  • In a conference game, West Virginia’s penalty yards were 50.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 32.3 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, West Virginia’s passing yards were 121.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.2 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at Iowa StateIowa State 45, West Virginia 42
Oct 12, 2024at West VirginiaIowa State 28, West Virginia 16
Nov 5, 2022at Iowa StateIowa State 31, West Virginia 14
Oct 30, 2021at West VirginiaWest Virginia 38, Iowa State 31
Dec 5, 2020at Iowa StateIowa State 42, West Virginia 6
Oct 12, 2019at West VirginiaIowa State 38, West Virginia 14
Oct 13, 2018at Iowa StateIowa State 30, West Virginia 14
Nov 4, 2017at West VirginiaWest Virginia 20, Iowa State 16
Nov 26, 2016at Iowa StateWest Virginia 49, Iowa State 19
Nov 28, 2015at West VirginiaWest Virginia 30, Iowa State 6

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.