Putting Up Numbers· college football

UTEP @ New Mexico

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

New Mexico 61, UTEP 7New Mexico was favored by 23, and New Mexico covered.

UTEP at New Mexico: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameUTEP1 gameNew Mexico1 game
Points−9.1+26.4
Points allowed+31.1−8.4
Total offense, yards−32+77
Total defense, yards+133−16
Touchdowns−0.6+2.0
Passer rating−67.1+54.1
Third downs−3.0%+14.2%
Sacks−1.3−0.2
Penalty yards+4.6−16.4
Turnovers forced−0.2+3.8
Turnovers lost+3.5−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

New Mexico

UTEP

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

New Mexico

  • New Mexico had won 9 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 10.
  • New Mexico had covered 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • New Mexico had covered 4 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • New Mexico was 16.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 4th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+31.0 against the line this game.

UTEP

  • UTEP was 2.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 89th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−31.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • New Mexico leads the series 38–31–2 since 1934. New Mexico has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • New Mexico had beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • New Mexico had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • New Mexico had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, New Mexico’s penalty yards were 38.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.9 under expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, New Mexico’s points were 10.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 25.8 over expected.
  • UTEP had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Against an unranked opponent, UTEP’s penalty yards were 36.8 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 4.6 over expected.
  • On the road, UTEP’s points allowed were 15.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 25.8 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at New MexicoNew Mexico 61, UTEP 7
Sep 17, 2022at New MexicoNew Mexico 27, UTEP 10
Sep 25, 2021at UTEPUTEP 20, New Mexico 13
Aug 30, 2014at New MexicoUTEP 31, New Mexico 24
Sep 7, 2013at UTEPNew Mexico 42, UTEP 35
Oct 2, 2010at New MexicoUTEP 38, New Mexico 20
Sep 1, 2007at UTEPUTEP 10, New Mexico 6
Sep 23, 2006at New MexicoNew Mexico 26, UTEP 13
Sep 24, 2005at UTEPUTEP 21, New Mexico 13
Sep 1, 2001at New MexicoNew Mexico 26, UTEP 6

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.