Putting Up Numbers· college football

Utah State @ Boise State

Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · Unranked at No. 22

Boise State 37, Utah State 18Boise State was favored by 19.5, and Utah State covered.

Utah State at Boise State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameUtah State1 gameBoise State1 game
Points−6.1+11.5
Points allowed+4.3+1.6
Total offense, yards−18+64
Total defense, yards−3+30
Touchdowns−0.7+1.5
Passer rating−3.1+79.2
Third downs−4.7%+21.0%
Sacks−0.2+3.9
Penalty yards+5.4−31.7
Turnovers forced−0.3−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.2−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Boise State

Utah State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Boise State

  • Boise State had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • Boise State was 7.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 26th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−0.5 against the line this game.

Utah State

  • Utah State was 0.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 73rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+0.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Boise State leads the series 26–5 since 1975. Boise State has won the last 11. Boise State has won 13 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Boise State had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Boise State had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, Boise State’s rushing yards were 155.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 19.6 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Boise State’s third-down conversion rate were 16.6% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 15.9% over expected.
  • Utah State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, Utah State’s rushing yards were 47.4 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 88.1 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at Boise StateBoise State 37, Utah State 18
Nov 28, 2025at Utah StateBoise State 25, Utah State 24
Oct 5, 2024at Boise StateBoise State 62, Utah State 30
Nov 18, 2023at Utah StateBoise State 45, Utah State 10
Nov 25, 2022at Boise StateBoise State 42, Utah State 23
Sep 25, 2021at Utah StateBoise State 27, Utah State 3
Oct 24, 2020at Boise StateBoise State 42, Utah State 13
Nov 23, 2019at Utah StateBoise State 56, Utah State 21
Nov 24, 2018at Boise StateBoise State 33, Utah State 24
Oct 28, 2017at Utah StateBoise State 41, Utah State 14

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.