Putting Up Numbers· college football

Stanford @ Wake Forest

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Wake Forest 57, Stanford 3Wake Forest was favored by 14.5, and Wake Forest covered.

Stanford at Wake Forest: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameStanford1 gameWake Forest1 game
Points−18.1+21.1
Points allowed+23.8−17.0
Total offense, yards−146+71
Total defense, yards+90−155
Touchdowns−2.4+3.4
Passer rating−41.3+37.9
Third downs−2.9%+32.7%
Sacks−0.7+2.1
Penalty yards−5.4−4.0
Turnovers forced−0.3−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.1−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Wake Forest

Stanford

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Wake Forest

  • Wake Forest was 3.9 points a game over the closing line this season, 43rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+39.5 against the line this game.

Stanford

  • Stanford was 4.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 101st of 136.fact · rankedits form →−39.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Wake Forest leads the series 3–1 since 2009. Wake Forest has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Wake Forest had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Wake Forest had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, Wake Forest’s penalty yards were 58.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 9.3 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Wake Forest’s third-down conversion rate were 17.2% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 31.2% over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Wake Forest’s points allowed were 10.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 14.2 under expected.
  • On the road, Stanford’s carries were 11.8 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.2 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Stanford’s passing yards were 74.3 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 99.4 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Stanford’s carries were 5.7 under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.2 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at Wake ForestWake Forest 57, Stanford 3
Oct 26, 2024at StanfordWake Forest 27, Stanford 24
Sep 18, 2010at StanfordStanford 68, Wake Forest 24
Sep 12, 2009at Wake ForestWake Forest 24, Stanford 17

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.