Putting Up Numbers· college football

Oregon State @ Colorado State

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Oregon State 56, Colorado State 26Oregon State was favored by 7, and Oregon State covered.

Oregon State at Colorado State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameOregon State1 gameColorado State1 game
Points+20.9−3.0
Points allowed−7.4+26.2
Total offense, yards+181−3
Total defense, yards−55+200
Touchdowns+3.8+0.5
Passer rating+100.8−13.9
Third downs+42.2%+15.9%
Sacks−1.2−1.2
Penalty yards+15.8−36.8
Turnovers forced−0.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.3−0.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Colorado State

Oregon State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Colorado State

  • Colorado State was 8.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 22nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−23.0 against the line this game.

Oregon State

  • Oregon State’s carries were 11.7 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 2nd of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 1.3 over expected.
  • Oregon State had covered 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
  • Oregon State was 13.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 9th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+23.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • Oregon State leads the series 3–2 since 1962. Oregon State has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Colorado State had lost 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • At home, Colorado State’s points allowed were 12.5 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 13.2 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Colorado State’s points were 11.2 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.5 under expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Oregon State’s penalty yards were 68.9 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.1 over expected.
  • On the road, Oregon State’s penalty yards were 25.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.1 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at Colorado StateOregon State 56, Colorado State 26
Oct 5, 2024at Oregon StateOregon State 39, Colorado State 31
Aug 26, 2017at Colorado StateColorado State 58, Oregon State 27
Oct 11, 1975at Oregon StateColorado State 17, Oregon State 8
Nov 17, 1962at Oregon StateOregon State 25, Colorado State 14

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.