Ohio State @ Iowa

Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · No. 5 at No. 14

Ohio State 31, Iowa 14Ohio State was favored by 14.5, and Ohio State covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Iowa had won 7 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Iowa had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Iowa had covered 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Iowa had beaten 13 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Iowa was 5.1 points a game over the closing line this season, 37th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−2.5 against the line this game.

Ohio State had beaten 12 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Ohio State had won 11 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Ohio State was 1.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 65th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+2.5 against the line this game.

Ohio State leads the series 49–15–3 since 1922. Ohio State has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

Iowa had covered 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Against a ranked opponent, Iowa’s carries were 9.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.9 under expected.
At home, Iowa’s points allowed were 9.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 7.1 over expected.
Ohio State had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Ohio State had won 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Ohio State had covered 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
In a conference game, Ohio State’s third-down conversion rate were 24.0% over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.1% over expected.
On the road, Ohio State’s passing yards were 47.1 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 56.4 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.