Putting Up Numbers· college football

Navy @ Air Force

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Air Force 14, Navy 9Air Force was favored by 2.5, and Air Force covered.

Navy at Air Force: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNavy1 gameAir Force1 game
Points−14.4−20.0
Points allowed−16.0−16.0
Total offense, yards−89−140
Total defense, yards−135−133
Touchdowns−1.9−2.1
Passer rating−3.2−80.4
Third downs−30.2%+8.2%
Sacks−1.4−0.8
Penalty yards−7.1−34.8
Turnovers forced+0.7−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.1+0.9

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Air Force

Navy

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Air Force

  • Air Force was 0.8 points a game under the closing line this season, 79th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+2.5 against the line this game.

Navy

  • Navy had won 7 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Navy was 9.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 126th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−2.5 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Navy had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Navy had beaten 7 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 7 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at Air ForceAir Force 14, Navy 9
Oct 4, 2025at NavyNavy 34, Air Force 31
Oct 5, 2024at Air ForceNavy 34, Air Force 7
Oct 21, 2023at NavyAir Force 17, Navy 6
Oct 1, 2022at Air ForceAir Force 13, Navy 10
Sep 11, 2021at NavyAir Force 23, Navy 3
Oct 3, 2020at Air ForceAir Force 40, Navy 7
Oct 5, 2019at NavyNavy 34, Air Force 25
Oct 6, 2018at Air ForceAir Force 35, Navy 7
Oct 7, 2017at NavyNavy 48, Air Force 45

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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