Miami (FL) @ Clemson

Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · No. 4 at unranked

Miami (FL) 41, Clemson 13Miami (FL) was favored by 15, and Miami (FL) covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Clemson had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Clemson was 4.9 points a game under the closing line this season, 103rd of 136, and 11.0 worse at home than away over its last 25, 133rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−13.0 against the line this game.

Miami (FL) had won 5 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
Miami (FL) had beaten 7 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 8.
Miami (FL) had won 4 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Miami (FL) had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Miami (FL) had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Miami (FL) was 6.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 31st of 136.fact · rankedits form →+13.0 against the line this game.

Miami (FL) leads the series 8–7 since 1945. Miami (FL) has won the last 2.seriesevery meeting →

Clemson had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
Against a ranked opponent, Clemson’s third-down conversion rate were 24.8% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.6% over expected.
In a conference game, Clemson’s rushing yards were 52.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 55.4 under expected.
At night, Clemson’s third-down conversion rate were 10.2% under expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 8.6% over expected.
Miami (FL) had covered 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Miami (FL) was 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
On the road, Miami (FL)’s passing yards were 43.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 27.1 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.