Putting Up Numbers· college football

Fresno State @ Washington State

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Fresno State 26, Washington State 6Washington State was favored by 2, and Fresno State covered.

Fresno State at Washington State: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameFresno State1 gameWashington State1 game
Points−0.3−21.9
Points allowed−17.1+1.7
Total offense, yards−5−252
Total defense, yards−163+39
Touchdowns−1.2−3.2
Passer rating+2.1−48.8
Third downs−4.7%−19.6%
Sacks+2.4−1.3
Penalty yards−12.5−4.3
Turnovers forced+0.8−0.3
Turnovers lost−0.1+0.7

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Washington State

Fresno State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Washington State

  • Washington State had covered 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Washington State was 1.0 points a game over the closing line this season, 69th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−22.0 against the line this game.

Fresno State

  • Fresno State had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.
  • Fresno State was 6.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 33rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+22.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Washington State had covered 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Washington State had won 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • At home, Washington State’s pass attempts were 6.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.7 under expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Washington State’s third-down conversion rate were 11.0% under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 16.7% under expected.
  • Fresno State had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, Fresno State’s total yards were 114.1 under expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 42.1 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Fresno State’s rushing yards were 63.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 40.1 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at Washington StateFresno State 26, Washington State 6
Oct 12, 2024at Fresno StateWashington State 25, Fresno State 17
Dec 17, 2022neutralFresno State 29, Washington State 6
Sep 10, 1994at Washington StateWashington State 24, Fresno State 3
Sep 26, 1992at Fresno StateWashington State 39, Fresno State 37
Sep 14, 1991at Washington StateFresno State 34, Washington State 30
Sep 5, 1987at Washington StateWashington State 41, Fresno State 24

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.