Florida @ Missouri

Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · No. 8 at No. 25

Missouri 45, Florida 17Florida was favored by 5.5, and Missouri covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Missouri had beaten 27 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Missouri was 5.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 107th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+33.5 against the line this game.

Florida had won 5 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Florida had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Florida had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Florida was 9.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 17th of 136, and 14.6 worse away than at home over its last 25, 134th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−33.5 against the line this game.

Missouri leads the series 8–6 since 1965. Missouri has won the last 2. Missouri has won 3 straight at home in the series.seriesevery meeting →

Missouri had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
Missouri had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
At home, Missouri’s total yards were 276.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 214.8 over expected.
Against a ranked opponent, Missouri’s pass attempts were 7.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.3 under expected.
Florida was 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Didn’t cover.
On the road, Florida’s penalty yards were 82.4 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.0 over expected.
In a conference game, Florida’s penalty yards were 55.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 17.0 over expected.
Against a ranked opponent, Florida’s points of margin were 33.2 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 31.1 under expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.