Putting Up Numbers· college football

Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20Miami (OH) was favored by 11, and Bowling Green covered.

Bowling Green at Miami (OH): against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameBowling Green1 gameMiami (OH)1 game
Points−1.2−12.7
Points allowed−7.8+7.4
Total offense, yards−12−101
Total defense, yards−67+80
Touchdowns−0.2−2.9
Passer rating+19.3+12.4
Third downs+10.2%−14.1%
Sacks+3.9−1.4
Penalty yards+8.0+50.6
Turnovers forced−1.2−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.3−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Miami (OH)

Bowling Green

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Miami (OH)

  • Miami (OH) was 2.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 86th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−15.0 against the line this game.

Bowling Green

  • Bowling Green had lost 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Bowling Green was 10.6 points a game under the closing line this season, 129th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+15.0 against the line this game.

The series

If you squint

  • Miami (OH) had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Miami (OH) had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • At home, Miami (OH)’s penalty yards were 29.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 51.1 over expected.
  • Bowling Green had failed to cover 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, Bowling Green’s points allowed were 20.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 12.2 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at Miami (OH)Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20
Nov 29, 2024at Bowling GreenMiami (OH) 28, Bowling Green 12
Oct 7, 2023at Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 27, Bowling Green 0
Oct 15, 2022at Bowling GreenBowling Green 17, Miami (OH) 13
Nov 16, 2021at Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 34, Bowling Green 7
Nov 13, 2019at Miami (OH)Miami (OH) 44, Bowling Green 3
Sep 22, 2018at Bowling GreenMiami (OH) 38, Bowling Green 23
Oct 7, 2017at Miami (OH)Bowling Green 37, Miami (OH) 29
Oct 22, 2016at Bowling GreenMiami (OH) 40, Bowling Green 26
Nov 5, 2013at Miami (OH)Bowling Green 45, Miami (OH) 3

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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