Putting Up Numbers· college football

Boston College @ SMU

Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · Unranked at No. 21

SMU 25, Boston College 16SMU was favored by 21.5, and Boston College covered.

Boston College at SMU: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameBoston College1 gameSMU1 game
Points−7.3−5.3
Points allowed−8.3−4.0
Total offense, yards−8−167
Total defense, yards−243−19
Touchdowns−0.7+0.6
Passer rating+7.5−4.1
Third downs+10.4%+13.2%
Sacks+0.4+2.4
Penalty yards+36.8+14.5
Turnovers forced−1.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.1−1.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

SMU

Boston College

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

SMU

  • SMU had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
  • SMU was 3.5 points a game under the closing line this season, 93rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →−12.5 against the line this game.

Boston College

  • Boston College was 8.0 points a game under the closing line this season, 122nd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+12.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • SMU leads the series 4–1 since 1986. SMU has won the last 3.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • SMU had beaten 8 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • SMU had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Against an unranked opponent, SMU’s passing yards were 174.5 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 103.2 under expected.
  • At home, SMU’s passing yards were 182.5 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 103.2 under expected.
  • In a conference game, SMU’s rushing yards were 75.4 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 111.0 under expected.
  • Boston College had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • In a conference game, Boston College’s passing yards were 128.4 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 64.7 over expected.
  • On the road, Boston College’s penalty yards were 22.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 36.3 over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 3, 2026at SMUSMU 25, Boston College 16
Nov 8, 2025at Boston CollegeSMU 45, Boston College 13
Nov 16, 2024at SMUSMU 38, Boston College 28
Dec 28, 2023neutralBoston College 23, SMU 14
Oct 4, 1986at SMUSMU 31, Boston College 29

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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