Alabama @ Mississippi State

Sat, Oct 3, 2026 · No. 7 at No. 16

Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23Alabama was favored by 5.5, and Alabama covered.

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Mississippi State had covered 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Mississippi State had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
Mississippi State was 14.6 points a game over the closing line this season, 6th of 136, and 8.6 worse at home than away over its last 25, 129th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−27.5 against the line this game.

Alabama’s passing yards were 100.8 higher at home than away against expected over its last 25 games, 1st of 136 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 49.8 over expected.
Alabama had won 6 straight on the road.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
Alabama had won 4 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Alabama had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 5.
Alabama had beaten 10 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Alabama had won 4 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
Alabama was 10.8 points a game over the closing line this season, 13th of 136.fact · rankedits form →+27.5 against the line this game.

Alabama leads the series 85–18–3 since 1902. Alabama has won the last 17.seriesevery meeting →

Mississippi State had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
At home, Mississippi State’s passing yards were 158.3 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 31.6 over expected.
Against a ranked opponent, Mississippi State’s carries were 5.9 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.7 under expected.
In a conference game, Mississippi State’s penalty yards were 30.6 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 37.0 under expected.
Alabama had beaten 7 of its last 10 ranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
Alabama was 3–1 against the line as a favorite this season.countits form →Covered.
On the road, Alabama’s pass attempts were 11.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 6.7 under expected.
In a conference game, Alabama’s points of margin were 26.1 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 27.9 over expected.

Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
“This season” and the analysis are the games through Oct 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
A game with no box score sits out.