Putting Up Numbers· college football

North Texas @ Tulsa

Thu, Oct 1, 2026

North Texas 45, Tulsa 44North Texas was favored by 2, and Tulsa covered.

North Texas at Tulsa: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameNorth Texas1 gameTulsa1 game
Points+22.9+11.3
Points allowed+16.4+11.6
Total offense, yards+184−73
Total defense, yards−26+107
Touchdowns+3.3+2.0
Passer rating+20.0−35.9
Third downs+2.2%−25.0%
Sacks−0.7−0.4
Penalty yards+8.3−19.4
Turnovers forced−1.3+1.8
Turnovers lost+1.7−1.3

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Tulsa

North Texas

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Tulsa

  • Tulsa was 0.4 points a game over the closing line this season, 73rd of 136.fact · rankedits form →+1.0 against the line this game.

North Texas

  • North Texas had covered 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • North Texas had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • North Texas was 11.3 points a game over the closing line this season, 13th of 136.fact · rankedits form →−1.0 against the line this game.

The series

  • Tulsa leads the series 17–10 since 1957. North Texas has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At home, Tulsa’s points allowed were 33.9 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 13.6 over expected.
  • At night, Tulsa’s penalty yards were 34.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 20.1 under expected.
  • North Texas had beaten 9 of its last 10 unranked opponents.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • North Texas had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • North Texas had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • On the road, North Texas’ points allowed were 15.9 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 14.4 over expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, North Texas’ third-down conversion rate were 19.9% over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 3.3% under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Oct 1, 2026at TulsaNorth Texas 45, Tulsa 44
Sep 28, 2024at North TexasNorth Texas 52, Tulsa 20
Nov 18, 2023at TulsaNorth Texas 35, Tulsa 28
Nov 30, 2013at TulsaNorth Texas 42, Tulsa 10
Oct 1, 2011at TulsaTulsa 41, North Texas 24
Sep 6, 2008at North TexasTulsa 56, North Texas 26
Sep 16, 2006at TulsaTulsa 28, North Texas 3
Sep 17, 2005at North TexasTulsa 54, North Texas 2
Nov 20, 1982at North TexasTulsa 38, North Texas 20
Oct 11, 1980at TulsaTulsa 28, North Texas 27

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 30, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.