Oregon @ 
USC
Oregon 41, USC 27Oregon was favored by 3.5, and Oregon covered.
| a game | Oregon1 game | USC1 game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | +18.4 | +0.9 |
| Points allowed | −4.1 | +14.9 |
| Total offense, yards | +172 | +62 |
| Total defense, yards | +36 | +130 |
| Touchdowns | +2.5 | −0.1 |
| Passer rating | +49.8 | −4.6 |
| Third downs | +13.8% | −20.6% |
| Sacks | +0.4 | −1.9 |
| Penalty yards | −3.0 | −9.2 |
| Turnovers forced | −0.2 | −1.2 |
| Turnovers lost | −1.2 | −0.2 |
Who put up numbers
USC
- Passing yardsJayden Maiava326 passing yards
- Passing touchdownsJayden Maiava2 passing touchdowns
- Rushing yardsKing Miller74 rushing yards
Oregon
Analysis
USC
- USC had won 10 straight at home.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- USC had won 4 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
- USC had beaten 4 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- USC was 7.4 points a game under the closing line this season, 117th of 135.fact · rankedits form →−10.5 against the line this game.
Oregon
- Oregon had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
- Oregon was 8.2 points a game under the closing line this season, 118th of 135.fact · rankedits form →+10.5 against the line this game.
The series
- USC leads the series 38–24–2 since 1920. Oregon has won the last 5.seriesevery meeting →
If you squint
- USC had failed to cover 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- At home, USC’s third-down conversion rate were 25.8% over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 22.7% under expected.
- In a conference game, USC’s points allowed were 11.6 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 18.9 over expected.
- Oregon had won 9 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
- Oregon had won 8 of its last 10.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
- Oregon had beaten 7 of its last 10 ranked opponents.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
- On the road, Oregon’s total yards were 154.7 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 172.0 over expected.
Every meeting
| Date | Where | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | at USC | Oregon 41, USC 27 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | at Oregon | Oregon 42, USC 27 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | at Oregon | Oregon 36, USC 27 |
| Dec 18, 2020 | at USC | Oregon 31, USC 24 |
| Nov 2, 2019 | at USC | Oregon 56, USC 24 |
| Nov 5, 2016 | at USC | USC 45, Oregon 20 |
| Nov 21, 2015 | at Oregon | Oregon 48, USC 28 |
| Nov 3, 2012 | at USC | Oregon 62, USC 51 |
| Nov 19, 2011 | at Oregon | USC 38, Oregon 35 |
| Oct 30, 2010 | at USC | Oregon 53, USC 32 |
Method
- Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
- “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 25, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
- Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
- A game with no box score sits out.