Putting Up Numbers· college football

Air Force @ Nevada

Sat, Sep 26, 2026

Air Force 36, Nevada 33Air Force was favored by 5.5, and Nevada covered.

Air Force at Nevada: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameAir Force1 gameNevada1 game
Points+14.4+7.4
Points allowed+9.3+12.3
Total offense, yards+148+60
Total defense, yards+65+95
Touchdowns+1.8−0.2
Passer rating−8.4−19.8
Third downs+12.2%−5.9%
Sacks+2.3−0.5
Penalty yards+21.6−10.9
Turnovers forced−1.2−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.1−1.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Nevada

Air Force

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Nevada

  • Nevada was 5.5 points a game over the closing line this season, 43rd of 135.fact · rankedits form →+2.5 against the line this game.

The series

  • Air Force leads the series 7–2 since 2012. Air Force has won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Nevada had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, Nevada’s rushing yards were 161.0 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 63.7 over expected.
  • Air Force had covered 7 of its last 10 on the road.countits form →Now 7 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 26, 2026at NevadaAir Force 36, Nevada 33
Nov 23, 2024at NevadaAir Force 22, Nevada 19
Sep 23, 2022at Air ForceAir Force 48, Nevada 20
Nov 19, 2021at NevadaAir Force 41, Nevada 39
Sep 29, 2018at Air ForceNevada 28, Air Force 25
Oct 20, 2017at NevadaAir Force 45, Nevada 42
Nov 15, 2014at Air ForceAir Force 45, Nevada 38
Sep 28, 2013at NevadaNevada 45, Air Force 42
Oct 26, 2012at Air ForceAir Force 48, Nevada 31

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 25, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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