Putting Up Numbers· college football

Stanford @ Duke

Sat, Sep 19, 2026

Duke 35, Stanford 7Duke was favored by 9.5, and Duke covered.

Stanford at Duke: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameStanford1 gameDuke1 game
Points−10.9−2.8
Points allowed+4.9−12.7
Total offense, yards−92+19
Total defense, yards+65−112
Touchdowns−1.1+0.2
Passer rating−27.4−15.9
Third downs−16.8%−10.0%
Sacks−1.1+2.1
Penalty yards−12.6+24.9
Turnovers forced−0.3−0.2
Turnovers lost−0.3−0.1

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Duke

Stanford

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Duke

  • Duke had won 6 straight.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.
  • Duke had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.

The series

If you squint

  • Duke had covered 7 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, Duke’s passing yards were 140.5 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 53.9 under expected.
  • In a conference game, Stanford’s points were 15.1 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 10.5 under expected.
  • Against an unranked opponent, Stanford’s passing yards were 84.3 over expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 63.4 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 19, 2026at DukeDuke 35, Stanford 7
Sep 8, 2012at StanfordStanford 50, Duke 13
Sep 10, 2011at DukeStanford 44, Duke 14
Sep 23, 1972at DukeStanford 10, Duke 6
Oct 2, 1971at StanfordDuke 9, Stanford 3

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 18, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.