Putting Up Numbers· college football

Florida State @ Alabama

Sat, Sep 19, 2026 · Unranked at No. 10

Alabama 50, Florida State 36Alabama was favored by 18.5, and Florida State covered.

Florida State at Alabama: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameFlorida State1 gameAlabama1 game
Points+15.5+20.3
Points allowed+16.8+11.3
Total offense, yards+145+149
Total defense, yards+182+101
Touchdowns+2.9+2.4
Passer rating+38.3+57.6
Third downs+19.0%−8.1%
Sacks−1.5+0.3
Penalty yards−17.3−1.1
Turnovers forced−1.2+1.8
Turnovers lost+1.6−1.2

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Alabama

Florida State

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Alabama

  • Alabama had beaten 8 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 9.
  • Alabama had won 6 straight on the road.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

The series

If you squint

  • Alabama had won 9 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 10 of 11.
  • Alabama had covered 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Alabama had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • At home, Alabama’s penalty yards were 29.3 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 2.4 over expected.
  • Florida State had lost 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Florida State had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 7 of 11.
  • Against a ranked opponent, Florida State’s third-down conversion rate were 27.6% under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 20.6% over expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 19, 2026at AlabamaAlabama 50, Florida State 36
Aug 30, 2025at Florida StateFlorida State 31, Alabama 17
Sep 2, 2017neutralAlabama 24, Florida State 7
Oct 12, 1974at AlabamaAlabama 8, Florida State 7
Sep 23, 1967at AlabamaAlabama 37, Florida State 37
Oct 23, 1965at AlabamaAlabama 21, Florida State 0

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 18, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.