Putting Up Numbers· college football

Western Michigan @ Michigan

Sat, Sep 5, 2026 · Unranked at No. 16

Michigan 13, Western Michigan 12Michigan was favored by 27.5, and Western Michigan covered.

Western Michigan at Michigan: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameWestern Michigan1 gameMichigan1 game
Points−7.1−12.7
Points allowed−11.3−11.5
Total offense, yards−68−105
Total defense, yards−69−104
Touchdowns−2.0−1.1
Passer rating−19.8−13.8
Third downs+9.9%−9.4%
Sacks−0.8+0.1
Penalty yards−13.0+22.4
Turnovers forced+1.8−1.2
Turnovers lost−1.2+1.8

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Michigan

Western Michigan

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Michigan

  • Michigan’s third-down conversion rate were 19.4% lower vs a ranked opponent than vs an unranked opponent against expected over its last 25 games, 74th of 74 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 15.1% under expected.
  • Michigan had beaten 5 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →Extended to 6.

Western Michigan

  • Western Michigan had won 4 straight by 10 or more.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Western Michigan had won 6 straight.streakthe runs →Ended here.
  • Western Michigan had beaten 6 straight unranked teams.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.
  • Western Michigan had won 5 straight at home.streakthe runs →This game didn’t count toward it.

The series

  • Michigan leads the series 9–0 since 1917. Michigan has won the last 9.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • Michigan had won 8 of its last 10 at home.countits form →Now 9 of 11.
  • Michigan had won 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Michigan had failed to cover 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.
  • Western Michigan had covered 7 of its last 10.countits form →Now 8 of 11.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Sep 5, 2026at MichiganMichigan 13, Western Michigan 12
Sep 4, 2021at MichiganMichigan 47, Western Michigan 14
Sep 8, 2018at MichiganMichigan 49, Western Michigan 3
Sep 3, 2011at MichiganMichigan 34, Western Michigan 10
Sep 5, 2009at MichiganMichigan 31, Western Michigan 7
Sep 7, 2002at MichiganMichigan 35, Western Michigan 12
Sep 22, 2001at MichiganMichigan 38, Western Michigan 21
Sep 25, 1943at MichiganMichigan 57, Western Michigan 6
Oct 10, 1917at MichiganMichigan 17, Western Michigan 13

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The ten biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Sep 4, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Touchdowns are passing and rushing. Turnovers are interceptions and fumbles lost. The passer rating is the NCAA’s over the team’s passers that game, and third downs and penalty yards are ESPN’s team box (sportsdataverse, CC BY 4.0). A night game kicked off at 6pm or later at the home team’s clock.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

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