Texas’ 3-point attempts vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Through Texas’ game on Apr 3, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas was 3.9 3-point attempts under vs a top-10 opponent and 1.0 3-point attempts over vs an unranked opponent over its last 60 games, 13 games against 25. The plain averages are 9.7 and 13.8, a difference of 4.1.
Texas’ −4.8 vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 39th of the 40 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games through Apr 3, 2026.
3-point attempts a game over expected
A −4.8 difference in 3-point attempts over expected vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-10 opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −4.1 difference in 3-point attempts vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-10 opponent and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3-point attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | @ Auburn | W | 8 | 8.0 | |
| Jan 20, 2025 | vs Maryland (neutral) | W | 9 | 13.5 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | vs Tennessee | W | 6 | 10.1 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | W | 11 | 5.5 | |
| Jan 30, 2025 | vs Missouri | W | 7 | 12.6 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | W | 11 | 12.2 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 13 | 11.7 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 4 | 10.2 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 12 | 10.8 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | vs LSU | W | 7 | 15.8 | |
| Feb 24, 2025 | @ Georgia | W | 15 | 12.8 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | @ Mississippi State | W | 14 | 14.3 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 9 | 14.0 | |
| Mar 7, 2025 | vsOle Miss (neutral) | W | 9 | 5.8 | |
| Mar 8, 2025 | vsLSU (neutral) | W | 15 | 15.2 | |
| Mar 9, 2025 | vsSouth Carolina (neutral) | L | 8 | 9.8 | |
| Mar 22, 2025 | vs William & Mary | W | 9 | 12.3 | |
| Mar 24, 2025 | vs Illinois | W | 5 | 10.2 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | vsTennessee (neutral) | W | 7 | 9.9 | |
| Mar 31, 2025 | vs TCU (neutral) | W | 3 | 7.9 | |
| Apr 4, 2025 | vsSouth Carolina (neutral) | L | 10 | 9.7 | |
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Incarnate Word | W | 17 | 11.5 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Richmond | W | 12 | 14.1 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 14 | 17.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs Texas Southern | W | 12 | 13.3 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs James Madison | W | 10 | 10.6 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs UCLA (neutral) | W | 15 | 11.9 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vsSouth Carolina (neutral) | W | 6 | 14.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs Pennsylvania | W | 12 | 13.9 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 9 | 11.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Prairie View A&M | W | 12 | 14.7 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @ UT Rio Grande Valley | W | 13 | 16.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Baylor (neutral) | W | 11 | 13.1 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Northwestern State | W | 11 | 11.7 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ South Dakota State | W | 12 | 16.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs SE Louisiana | W | 22 | 17.1 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @Missouri | W | 21 | 18.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsOle Miss | W | 11 | 7.6 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vsAuburn | W | 9 | 10.9 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @LSU | L | 12 | 17.7 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @South Carolina | L | 9 | 13.8 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vsTexas A&M | W | 18 | 13.2 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @Florida | W | 10 | 11.0 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 11 | 16.2 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vsLSU | W | 8 | 18.3 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | vsKentucky | W | 14 | 10.9 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @Vanderbilt | L | 15 | 12.7 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @Tennessee | W | 6 | 9.4 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 28 | 16.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vsMississippi State | W | 22 | 12.9 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vsGeorgia | W | 6 | 13.0 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @ Alabama | W | 10 | 10.8 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsAlabama (neutral) | W | 18 | 10.6 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsOle Miss (neutral) | W | 8 | 7.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina (neutral) | W | 7 | 14.1 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 9 | 11.2 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 12 | 12.6 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vsKentucky (neutral) | W | 9 | 11.0 | |
| Mar 30, 2026 | vs Michigan (neutral) | W | 19 | 10.4 | |
| Apr 3, 2026 | vsUCLA (neutral) | L | 9 | 12.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 in 2024-25, plus 0.2 in 2025-26 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 92% in 2024-25, 93% in 2025-26 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- 10 games in 2024-25 and 2025-26 are neither vs a top-10 opponent nor vs an unranked opponent, and sit out.