Texas’ 3-point attempts vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Texas was 4.3 3-point attempts under vs a top-10 opponent and 1.5 3-point attempts over vs an unranked opponent in 2025-26, 7 games against 17. The plain averages are 10.1 and 15.4, a difference of 5.2.
Texas’ −5.8 vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 11th of the 13 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
3-point attempts a game over expected
A −5.8 difference in 3-point attempts over expected vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-10 opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −5.2 difference in 3-point attempts vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-10 opponent and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3-point attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | vs Incarnate Word | W | 17 | 11.5 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs Richmond | W | 12 | 14.1 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 14 | 17.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs Texas Southern | W | 12 | 13.3 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | vs James Madison | W | 10 | 10.6 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | vs UCLA (neutral) | W | 15 | 11.9 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vs South Carolina (neutral) | W | 6 | 14.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | vs Pennsylvania | W | 12 | 13.9 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs North Carolina | W | 9 | 11.9 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | vs Prairie View A&M | W | 12 | 14.7 | |
| Dec 10, 2025 | @ UT Rio Grande Valley | W | 13 | 16.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Baylor (neutral) | W | 11 | 13.1 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Northwestern State | W | 11 | 11.7 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ South Dakota State | W | 12 | 16.2 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | vs SE Louisiana | W | 22 | 17.1 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | @ Missouri | W | 21 | 18.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vs Ole Miss | W | 11 | 7.6 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 9 | 10.9 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 12 | 17.7 | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | @South Carolina | L | 9 | 13.8 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 18 | 13.2 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | @ Florida | W | 10 | 11.0 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 11 | 16.2 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | vsLSU | W | 8 | 18.3 | |
| Feb 9, 2026 | vs Kentucky | W | 14 | 10.9 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 15 | 12.7 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | @ Tennessee | W | 6 | 9.4 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 28 | 16.6 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 22 | 12.9 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vs Georgia | W | 6 | 13.0 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | @ Alabama | W | 10 | 10.8 | |
| Mar 6, 2026 | vsAlabama (neutral) | W | 18 | 10.6 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | vsOle Miss (neutral) | W | 8 | 7.6 | |
| Mar 8, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina (neutral) | W | 7 | 14.1 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vs Missouri State | W | 9 | 11.2 | |
| Mar 22, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 12 | 12.6 | |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vsKentucky (neutral) | W | 9 | 11.0 | |
| Mar 30, 2026 | vs Michigan (neutral) | W | 19 | 10.4 | |
| Apr 3, 2026 | vsUCLA (neutral) | L | 9 | 12.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 93% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.