Tennessee’s 3-point attempts in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee was 2.9 3-point attempts under in a conference game and NaN 3-point attempts over in a nonconference game over its last 60 games, 35 games against 25. The plain averages are 27.1 and 35.0, a difference of 7.9.
Tennessee’s NaN in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 1st of the 363 teams with 6 games on each side over their last 60 games.
3-point attempts a game over expected
A NaN difference in 3-point attempts over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −7.9 difference in 3-point attempts in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is rare: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3-point attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2024 | vs Florida State | W | 35 | 27.5 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Iowa (neutral) | W | 29 | 32.2 | |
| Dec 14, 2024 | vs North Carolina Central | W | 63 | 29.9 | |
| Dec 18, 2024 | @ Memphis | W | 37 | 29.9 | |
| Dec 20, 2024 | vs Richmond (neutral) | W | 31 | 32.1 | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs Tulsa (neutral) | W | 32 | 30.1 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs Winthrop | W | 31 | 30.9 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | W | 23 | 31.0 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs Oklahoma | L | 36 | 33.5 | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | vs LSU | L | 31 | 33.9 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 34 | 32.4 | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | vs Mississippi State | W | 26 | 33.4 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 26 | 30.1 | |
| Jan 23, 2025 | @ Texas | L | 17 | 24.7 | |
| Jan 27, 2025 | vs South Carolina | L | 26 | 28.4 | |
| Feb 2, 2025 | @ Missouri | W | 25 | 30.7 | |
| Feb 6, 2025 | vs UConn | W | 28 | 31.1 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | @LSU | L | 18 | 34.3 | |
| Feb 13, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 28 | 26.7 | |
| Feb 16, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | W | 15 | 25.0 | |
| Feb 20, 2025 | vs Alabama | W | 21 | 29.7 | |
| Feb 23, 2025 | @ Florida | W | 29 | 32.0 | |
| Feb 27, 2025 | @ Kentucky | L | 29 | 29.3 | |
| Mar 2, 2025 | vs Georgia | L | 28 | 31.9 | |
| Mar 5, 2025 | vsTexas A&M (neutral) | W | 36 | 30.3 | |
| Mar 6, 2025 | vsVanderbilt (neutral) | L | 29 | 30.1 | |
| Mar 21, 2025 | vs South Florida (neutral) | W | 37 | 28.5 | |
| Mar 23, 2025 | @ Ohio State | W | 34 | 29.3 | |
| Mar 29, 2025 | vsTexas (neutral) | L | 26 | 24.4 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs NC State (neutral) | L | 33 | 31.7 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 38 | 26.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ UT Martin | W | 29 | 33.1 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Belmont | W | 34 | 30.4 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 34 | 30.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Coppin State | W | 40 | 29.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ UCLA | L | 30 | 28.4 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @ Stanford | W | 26 | 27.1 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsWinthrop | W | 42 | 30.6 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | 25 | 29.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs Southern Indiana | W | 48 | 32.5 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsFlorida | W | 25 | 28.1 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @Auburn | W | 21 | 27.5 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @Mississippi State | W | 27 | 29.9 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsArkansas | W | 41 | 33.8 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @Alabama | W | 20 | 27.8 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vsKentucky | W | 30 | 27.6 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsMississippi State | L | 21 | 30.6 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @UConn | L | 31 | 29.8 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @Georgia | W | 37 | 28.4 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @South Carolina | L | 44 | 29.4 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | vsMissouri | W | 29 | 35.8 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vsTexas | L | 21 | 24.9 | |
| Feb 17, 2026 | @Ole Miss | L | 24 | 24.0 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vsTexas A&M | L | 29 | 30.2 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @Oklahoma | L | 29 | 32.4 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @LSU | L | 29 | 34.4 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vsVanderbilt | L | 21 | 30.3 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsAlabama (neutral) | L | 23 | 27.8 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vsNC State (neutral) | L | 36 | 31.5 | |
| Nov 2, 2026 | vs Duquesne | W | 46 | NaN |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 in 2024-25, plus 0.2 in 2025-26, plus 0.0 in 2026-27 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 92% in 2024-25, 93% in 2025-26, NaN% in 2026-27 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.