Tennessee’s free throw attempts vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Tennessee was 4.4 free throw attempts under vs a top-10 opponent and 2.1 free throw attempts over vs an unranked opponent in 2025-26, 7 games against 17. The plain averages are 10.6 and 20.4, a difference of 9.8.
Tennessee’s −6.5 vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 13th of the 13 teams with 6 games on each side in 2025-26.
free throw attempts a game over expected
A −6.5 difference in free throw attempts over expected vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-10 opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A −9.8 difference in free throw attempts vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a top-10 opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | free throw attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | vs NC State (neutral) | L | 14 | 13.1 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 27 | 18.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ UT Martin | W | 17 | 18.0 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Belmont | W | 19 | 20.4 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 19 | 17.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs Coppin State | W | 21 | 21.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ UCLA | L | 9 | 13.5 | |
| Dec 3, 2025 | @ Stanford | W | 20 | 15.8 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs Winthrop | W | 17 | 21.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Louisville (neutral) | L | 16 | 16.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2025 | vs Southern Indiana | W | 22 | 20.0 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Florida | W | 24 | 20.9 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 16 | 17.4 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 17 | 16.6 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vs Arkansas | W | 20 | 17.5 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @ Alabama | W | 14 | 16.5 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | vs Kentucky | W | 16 | 16.8 | |
| Jan 29, 2026 | vsMississippi State | L | 23 | 17.0 | |
| Feb 1, 2026 | @ UConn | L | 12 | 14.5 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @ Georgia | W | 22 | 18.3 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | @ South Carolina | L | 5 | 12.4 | |
| Feb 12, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 20 | 16.0 | |
| Feb 15, 2026 | vs Texas | L | 11 | 19.0 | |
| Feb 17, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 15 | 18.2 | |
| Feb 19, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | L | 20 | 18.8 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | @ Oklahoma | L | 33 | 19.1 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 13 | 17.2 | |
| Mar 1, 2026 | vs Vanderbilt | L | 10 | 15.4 | |
| Mar 5, 2026 | vsAlabama (neutral) | L | 23 | 16.4 | |
| Mar 20, 2026 | vsNC State (neutral) | L | 6 | 13.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2025-26 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 82% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.