Putting Up Numbers· NHL

Red Wings @ Lightning

Tue, Nov 3, 2026

Lightning 4, Red Wings 2

Red Wings at Lightning: against expected, a game, this season, This game
a gameRed Wings1 gameLightning1 game
Goals−1.19+0.81
Goals against+0.65−1.13
Shots−4.2+0.9
Shots against−2.9−7.3
Power-play goals+0.33+0.21
Power-play goals allowed+0.32+0.28
Penalty minutes−3.6−1.5

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game.

Who put up numbers

Lightning

Red Wings

Analysis

What was true going in. Each line says how it stood up, and how it came out.

Lightning

  • The Lightning had won 6 straight at home.streakthe runs →Extended to 7.

Red Wings

  • The Red Wings' goals were 0.86 lower on a back-to-back than with a day off or more against expected over their last 165 games, 31st of 32 teams.fact · rankedthe split →This game: 1.13 under expected.

The series

  • The Lightning lead the series 52–46–2 since 1992-93. The Lightning have won the last 4.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At home, the Lightning's goal differential was 1.61 over expected in 6 games. 6 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 1.76 over expected.
  • On a back-to-back, the Red Wings' goals against were 2.32 under expected in 1 game. One game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 0.68 over expected.
  • Against a division opponent, the Red Wings' shots were 4.9 over expected in 3 games. 3 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.0 under expected.
  • Against a team over .500, the Red Wings' shots were 2.8 over expected in 2 games. 2 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →This game: 5.0 under expected.

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Nov 3, 2026at LightningLightning 4, Red Wings 2
Apr 13, 2026at LightningLightning 4, Red Wings 3
Mar 12, 2026at LightningLightning 4, Red Wings 1
Nov 28, 2025at Red WingsLightning 6, Red Wings 3
Oct 17, 2025at Red WingsRed Wings 2, Lightning 1
Apr 11, 2025at LightningRed Wings 4, Lightning 3
Feb 8, 2025at Red WingsLightning 6, Red Wings 3
Jan 25, 2025at Red WingsRed Wings 2, Lightning 0
Jan 18, 2025at LightningLightning 5, Red Wings 1
Apr 1, 2024at LightningRed Wings 4, Lightning 2

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • “This season” and the analysis are the games through Nov 2, the day before, so the page says what was true going in. “This game” is the night’s own numbers against expected.
  • Goals are the final score’s: a shootout gives its winner one goal, as the standings count it. Shots are shots on goal, and power-play goals allowed are the opponent’s.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

Read next