Putting Up Numbers· NHL

Blackhawks @ Lightning

Thu, Nov 5

The odds have it Lightning 4.15, Blackhawks 2.38.Expected goals from DraftKings’ moneyline and total on ESPN’s scoreboard, as of Nov 4. Odds move until kickoff.

Blackhawks at Lightning: against expected, a game, this season, All games
a gameBlackhawks15 gamesLightning14 games
−0.98+0.51
+0.68+0.03
−3.9+2.6
+2.6−2.5
−0.40−0.14
−0.04−0.07
−0.1−1.7

Each number is over (+) or under (−) what the team’s opponents usually allow, a game. Lit is among the five biggest either way. Tap a row for the games.

Analysis

What’s true going in. Each line says how it stood up; you judge.

Lightning

  • The Lightning have won 7 straight at home, the longest active home winning streak in the NHL.streakthe runs →

The series

  • The Lightning lead the series 39–26–5 since 1992-93. The Blackhawks have won 3 straight at the Lightning.seriesevery meeting →

If you squint

  • At home, the Lightning's goal differential is 1.68 over expected in 7 games. 7 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →
  • The Blackhawks have lost 7 of their last 10.countits form →
  • On the road, the Blackhawks' goals against are 1.34 over expected in 6 games. 6 games is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.thinthe split →

Every meeting

DateWhereScore
Jan 23, 2026at BlackhawksLightning 2, Blackhawks 1
Oct 23, 2025at LightningBlackhawks 3, Lightning 2
Jan 28, 2025at LightningBlackhawks 4, Lightning 1
Jan 24, 2025at BlackhawksLightning 4, Blackhawks 3
Nov 16, 2023at BlackhawksLightning 4, Blackhawks 2
Nov 9, 2023at LightningBlackhawks 5, Lightning 3
Mar 11, 2023at LightningLightning 3, Blackhawks 1
Jan 3, 2023at BlackhawksLightning 4, Blackhawks 1
Apr 1, 2022at LightningLightning 5, Blackhawks 2
Mar 6, 2022at BlackhawksLightning 6, Blackhawks 3

Method

  • Over or under is each game against what the opponent usually allowed, or usually scored, in its other games that season, with half the home edge, averaged over the team’s games. The five biggest numbers in the league either way are lit.
  • Goals are the final score’s: a shootout gives its winner one goal, as the standings count it. Shots are shots on goal, and power-play goals allowed are the opponent’s.
  • A game with no box score sits out.

Read next