The Rams' carries with Puka Nacua and without Puka Nacua
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Rams were 0.7 carries over with Puka Nacua and 1.2 carries under without Puka Nacua over their last 35 games, 31 games against 4. The plain averages are 27.6 and 25.3, a difference of 2.4. All 3 games on a short week were with Puka Nacua. All 5 playoff games were with Puka Nacua.
Puka Nacua, receiver: 3,197 receiving yards, 257 receptions and 350 targets in 31 of those 35 games, 3% of LA’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Puka Nacua
+0.7
without Puka Nacua
−1.2
-10010
A +1.9 difference in carries over expected with Puka Nacua vs without Puka Nacua is about what you’d expect.
plain
27.6
25.3
203040
A +2.4 difference in carries with Puka Nacua vs without Puka Nacua is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Puka Nacuawithout Puka Nacua
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs BUF | W | 42 | 24.9 | |
| Dec 12, 2024 | @ SF | W | 38 | 27.2 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ NYJ | W | 31 | 28.8 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs ARI | W | 22 | 27.7 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs SEA | L | 21 | 26.8 | |
| Jan 13, 2025 | vs MIN (neutral) | W | 22 | 23.9 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | @ PHI | L | 21 | 23.8 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs HOU | W | 25 | 26.2 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 25 | 27.2 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | @PHI | L | 31 | 28.0 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs IND | W | 26 | 27.8 | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | vsSF | L | 16 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ BAL | W | 23 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | vs JAX (neutral) | W | 29 | 24.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs NO | W | 43 | 28.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @SF | W | 30 | 26.4 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vsSEA | W | 22 | 26.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | vs TB | W | 19 | 25.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ CAR | L | 21 | 28.0 | |
| Dec 7, 2025 | @ARI | W | 36 | 27.5 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs DET | W | 29 | 27.5 | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | @SEA | L | 39 | 25.4 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | @ ATL | L | 20 | 27.8 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsARI | W | 31 | 28.2 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | @CAR | W | 29 | 27.5 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @ CHI | W | 31 | 27.6 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @SEA | L | 22 | 26.2 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vsSF (neutral) | L | 29 | 25.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | vs NYG | W | 28 | 26.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 23 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @PHI | W | 25 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vsBUF | L | 23 | 26.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsARI | L | 20 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ LV | W | 38 | 25.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 27 | 27.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.4 in 2025, plus 0.2 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 72% in 2024, 48% in 2025, 21% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.