The Rams' carries with Puka Nacua and without Puka Nacua
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Rams were 0.3 carries over with Puka Nacua and 1.6 carries under without Puka Nacua in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 27.0 and 25.5, a difference of 1.5. Both division games were with Puka Nacua. All 4 second-half games were with Puka Nacua.
Puka Nacua, receiver: 565 receiving yards, 56 receptions and 74 targets in 6 games this season, 3% of LA’s carries in those games.
2 games without Puka Nacua is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +1.8 difference in carries over expected with Puka Nacua vs without Puka Nacua is about what you’d expect.
A +1.5 difference in carries with Puka Nacua vs without Puka Nacua is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs SF (neutral) | L | 29 | 25.8 | |
| Sep 21, 2026 | vs NYG | W | 28 | 26.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ DEN | L | 23 | 27.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ PHI | W | 25 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | vs BUF | L | 23 | 26.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs ARI | L | 20 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | @ LV | W | 38 | 25.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 27 | 27.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 21% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.