The Patriots' points with Romeo Doubs and since Romeo Doubs’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Patriots were 0.4 points under with Romeo Doubs and 1.0 points over since Romeo Doubs’ last game over their last 35 games, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 22.7 and 24.0, a difference of 1.3. All 3 home games were with Romeo Doubs.
Romeo Doubs, receiver: 261 receiving yards, 14 receptions and 24 targets in 6 of those 35 games.
2 games since Romeo Doubs’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −1.4 difference in points over expected with Romeo Doubs vs since Romeo Doubs’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A −1.3 difference in points with Romeo Doubs vs since Romeo Doubs’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ MIA | L | 15 | 17.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs IND | L | 24 | 21.4 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ ARI | L | 17 | 17.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ BUF | L | 21 | 16.9 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs LAC | L | 7 | 17.5 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vsBUF | W | 23 | 18.2 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs LV | L | 13 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @MIA | W | 33 | 25.3 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs PIT | L | 14 | 26.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs CAR | W | 42 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @BUF | W | 23 | 24.7 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ NO | W | 25 | 23.5 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 31 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs CLE | W | 32 | 24.7 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs ATL | W | 24 | 26.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ TB | W | 28 | 24.7 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 27 | 30.6 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ CIN | W | 26 | 29.0 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 33 | 27.6 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsBUF | L | 31 | 25.8 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ BAL | W | 28 | 24.4 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @NYJ | W | 42 | 27.7 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 38 | 26.7 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsLAC | W | 16 | 24.7 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs HOU | W | 28 | 19.9 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @ DEN | W | 10 | 22.4 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vs SEA (neutral) | L | 13 | 20.2 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | @SEA | L | 10 | 23.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsPIT | W | 20 | 21.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ JAX | L | 6 | 22.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @BUF | W | 29 | 23.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsLV | W | 45 | 23.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsNYJ | W | 26 | 23.2 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 24 | 22.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @MIA | W | 24 | 23.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 27 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Romeo Doubs nor since Romeo Doubs’ last game: Romeo Doubs had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.