The Patriots' points of margin with TreVeyon Henderson and without TreVeyon Henderson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Patriots were 3.1 points over with TreVeyon Henderson and 1.4 points under without TreVeyon Henderson in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 3.3 and 1.0, a difference of 2.3. All 3 home games were with TreVeyon Henderson.
TreVeyon Henderson, running back: 203 rushing yards, 52 carries and 5 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without TreVeyon Henderson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +4.5 difference in points of margin over expected with TreVeyon Henderson vs without TreVeyon Henderson is about what you’d expect.
A +2.3 difference in points of margin with TreVeyon Henderson vs without TreVeyon Henderson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | @ SEA | L | -3 | 1.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 17 | -1.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ JAX | L | -29 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ BUF | W | 3 | -0.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs LV | W | 28 | 0.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 7 | 2.6 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ CHI | L | -6 | -0.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 5 | 3.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.