The Patriots' points of margin with Romeo Doubs and since Romeo Doubs’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Patriots were 3.3 points over with Romeo Doubs and 2.2 points under since Romeo Doubs’ last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 3.8 and -0.5, a difference of 4.3. All 3 home games were with Romeo Doubs. All 4 first-half games were with Romeo Doubs.
Romeo Doubs, receiver: 261 receiving yards, 14 receptions and 24 targets in 6 games this season.
2 games since Romeo Doubs’ last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +5.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Romeo Doubs vs since Romeo Doubs’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +4.3 difference in points of margin with Romeo Doubs vs since Romeo Doubs’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | @ SEA | L | -3 | 1.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vs PIT | W | 17 | -1.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ JAX | L | -29 | 0.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @ BUF | W | 3 | -0.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs LV | W | 28 | 0.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs NYJ | W | 7 | 2.6 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ CHI | L | -6 | -0.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @ MIA | W | 5 | 3.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.