The Patriots' pass attempts with TreVeyon Henderson and without TreVeyon Henderson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Patriots were 1.1 pass attempts under with TreVeyon Henderson and 4.5 pass attempts under without TreVeyon Henderson over their last 35 games, 27 games against 2. The plain averages are 30.0 and 26.5, a difference of 3.5. All 14 home games were with TreVeyon Henderson. Both games on a short week were with TreVeyon Henderson. All 4 playoff games were with TreVeyon Henderson.
TreVeyon Henderson, running back: 1,190 rushing yards, 262 carries and 45 receptions in 27 of those 35 games.
2 games without TreVeyon Henderson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
A +3.4 difference in pass attempts over expected with TreVeyon Henderson vs without TreVeyon Henderson is about what you’d expect.
A +3.5 difference in pass attempts with TreVeyon Henderson vs without TreVeyon Henderson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | @ MIA | L | 38 | 31.9 | |
| Dec 1, 2024 | vs IND | L | 30 | 32.3 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | @ ARI | L | 23 | 32.0 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ BUF | L | 36 | 31.5 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs LAC | L | 24 | 32.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vsBUF | W | 30 | 32.4 | |
| Sep 7, 2025 | vs LV | L | 46 | 28.3 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @MIA | W | 23 | 31.0 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vs PIT | L | 37 | 33.8 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | vs CAR | W | 18 | 30.5 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | @BUF | W | 30 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | @ NO | W | 26 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ TEN | W | 24 | 29.6 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vs CLE | W | 24 | 29.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2025 | vs ATL | W | 29 | 30.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2025 | @ TB | W | 31 | 31.9 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs NYJ | W | 34 | 29.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @ CIN | W | 35 | 30.8 | |
| Dec 1, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 31 | 31.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vsBUF | L | 23 | 29.4 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ BAL | W | 44 | 32.9 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @NYJ | W | 25 | 30.3 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsMIA | W | 22 | 31.1 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vsLAC | W | 30 | 29.4 | |
| Jan 18, 2026 | vs HOU | W | 27 | 30.8 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | @ DEN | W | 21 | 33.2 | |
| Feb 8, 2026 | vs SEA (neutral) | L | 43 | 31.9 | |
| Sep 9, 2026 | @SEA | L | 33 | 30.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | vsPIT | W | 22 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | @ JAX | L | 31 | 32.9 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | @BUF | W | 37 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vsLV | W | 34 | 31.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsNYJ | W | 32 | 30.7 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | @ CHI | L | 31 | 30.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @MIA | W | 20 | 31.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.0 in 2025, plus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% in 2025, 34% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.
- 6 games in 2024 are neither with TreVeyon Henderson nor without TreVeyon Henderson: TreVeyon Henderson had no game for the team that season, and sit out.