The Eagles' points of margin with Saquon Barkley and without Saquon Barkley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Eagles were 7.1 points under with Saquon Barkley and 1.8 points under without Saquon Barkley in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are -8.7 and -6.5, a difference of 2.2. Expected was 3.1 points higher with Saquon Barkley than without Saquon Barkley. All 3 away games were with Saquon Barkley. All 3 division games were with Saquon Barkley. All 4 first-half games were with Saquon Barkley.
Saquon Barkley, running back: 274 rushing yards, 56 carries and 7 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Saquon Barkley is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −5.3 difference in points of margin over expected with Saquon Barkley vs without Saquon Barkley is about what you’d expect.
A −2.2 difference in points of margin with Saquon Barkley vs without Saquon Barkley is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | vs WAS | W | 2 | -0.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 4 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @ CHI | L | -20 | -4.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs LA | L | -4 | -3.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | -2 | -7.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vs CAR | L | -11 | -1.7 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vs DAL | L | -17 | -0.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @WAS | L | -17 | 0.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.4 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 28% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.