The Eagles' passing yards with Saquon Barkley and without Saquon Barkley
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Eagles were 20.4 yards under with Saquon Barkley and 17.2 yards over without Saquon Barkley over their last 35 games, 31 games against 4. The plain averages are 194.7 and 236.3, a difference of 41.5. All 13 away games were with Saquon Barkley. All 5 playoff games were with Saquon Barkley.
Saquon Barkley, running back: 2,525 rushing yards, 552 carries and 64 receptions in 31 of those 35 games.
passing yards a game over expected
with Saquon Barkley
−20.4
without Saquon Barkley
+17.2
-1000100
A −37.6 difference in passing yards over expected with Saquon Barkley vs without Saquon Barkley is about what you’d expect.
plain
194.7
236.3
100200300
A −41.5 difference in passing yards with Saquon Barkley vs without Saquon Barkley is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Saquon Barkleywithout Saquon Barkley
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | vs CAR | W | 108 | 227.8 | |
| Dec 15, 2024 | vs PIT | W | 290 | 219.7 | |
| Dec 22, 2024 | @ WAS | L | 154 | 213.6 | |
| Dec 29, 2024 | vs DAL | W | 197 | 224.9 | |
| Jan 5, 2025 | vs NYG | W | 269 | 216.8 | |
| Jan 12, 2025 | vs GB | W | 131 | 221.3 | |
| Jan 19, 2025 | vs LA | W | 128 | 224.0 | |
| Jan 26, 2025 | vsWAS | W | 246 | 214.1 | |
| Feb 9, 2025 | vs KC (neutral) | W | 221 | 220.2 | |
| Sep 4, 2025 | vsDAL | W | 152 | 252.8 | |
| Sep 14, 2025 | @KC | W | 101 | 200.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2025 | vsLA | W | 226 | 217.6 | |
| Sep 28, 2025 | @ TB | W | 130 | 231.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2025 | vs DEN | L | 280 | 196.0 | |
| Oct 9, 2025 | @NYG | L | 283 | 199.0 | |
| Oct 19, 2025 | @ MIN | W | 326 | 159.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2025 | vsNYG | W | 179 | 213.5 | |
| Nov 10, 2025 | @GB | W | 183 | 201.1 | |
| Nov 16, 2025 | vs DET | W | 135 | 228.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2025 | @DAL | L | 289 | 235.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vs CHI | L | 230 | 224.5 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | @ LAC | L | 240 | 187.0 | |
| Dec 14, 2025 | vs LV | W | 208 | 202.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @WAS | W | 185 | 228.6 | |
| Dec 28, 2025 | @ BUF | W | 110 | 187.2 | |
| Jan 4, 2026 | vsWAS | L | 241 | 230.7 | |
| Jan 11, 2026 | vs SF | L | 168 | 214.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2026 | vsWAS | W | 203 | 230.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @ TEN | W | 264 | 226.5 | |
| Sep 28, 2026 | @CHI | L | 153 | 214.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vsLA | L | 93 | 204.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2026 | vs JAX (neutral) | L | 220 | 227.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | vsCAR | L | 215 | 201.4 | |
| Oct 26, 2026 | vsDAL | L | 211 | 219.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | @WAS | L | 212 | 228.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.7 in 2024, plus 4.5 in 2025, plus 1.5 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 36% in 2024, 64% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.