The Bills' points with Ty Johnson and without Ty Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, the Bills were 5.6 points over with Ty Johnson and 13.5 points over without Ty Johnson in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 31.2 and 38.5, a difference of 7.3. All 5 games on a full week’s rest or more were with Ty Johnson. All 4 second-half games were with Ty Johnson.
Ty Johnson, running back: 10 rushing yards, 6 carries and 15 receptions in 5 games this season.
2 games without Ty Johnson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −7.9 difference in points over expected with Ty Johnson vs without Ty Johnson is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Ty Johnson and it comes up 18 times in 100.
A −7.3 difference in points with Ty Johnson vs without Ty Johnson is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Ty Johnson and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | @ HOU | W | 36 | 24.7 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs DET | W | 41 | 25.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2026 | vs LAC | W | 24 | 26.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2026 | vs NE | L | 26 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2026 | @ LA | W | 37 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2026 | @ LV | W | 33 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2026 | vs BAL | W | 36 | 25.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.2 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 23% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the snap counts, which name every player who took a snap on offense, defense or special teams.